2020 or Sixes and Sevens
It seems unusually churlish to have named this year after the definition of perfect vision, as it is hard to think of a time when there has been less clarity.
In general, people are not very good at uncertainty. They seem to like knowing their children will return to school in September and, after the ludicrous efforts to shoehorn them in, that colleges will exist in a form that even remotely resembles what parents and students expect.
This year should have been called sixes and sevens not 2020. By the way, that expression is derived from a dice game in the 1300s, in which rolling a six or seven put your entire fortune at risk.
Right around tax time (or what would have been tax time had it not been moved from April 15 to July 15), I wrote a story called World War Three at a Time. That was 200 days before the election, and we are now more than halfway there.
How’s that war working for us?
At the time I wrote the story, George Floyd had not been killed by Minneapolis police officers and Black Lives Matter was just another movement seeking attention. A fourth front was opened.
The coronavirus seems to be resisting our haphazard efforts to stop it. Five million US cases is on the horizon – or nearer than that. We have passed 156,000 deaths. I have no idea what we should have expected, but those are big numbers. With lockdowns being reinstituted, it is hard to describe that theatre of our then three-front war as going well.
GDP for the second quarter declined at an annual rate of 32.9%. It was the largest decline since 1947 when the government began using modern tracking methods. Not much optimism on that front either.
That leaves the election, which is actually closer than many think. Early voting begins in less than six weeks and Election Day is only three months away. I am trying to recall another occasion in which a President has called for an election to be postponed but I don’t think there are any.
Whatever happens, it seems unlikely to bring us the certainty we might like. Thanks to an anticipated surge in absentee voting, traditional election night television coverage seems a bad bet. Depending on how litigious the two parties decide to be, it could be weeks before we know the outcome.
For what it is worth in trying to guess what comes next, here are some interesting observations from The Coronavirus Election by Doug Sosnik. It is quite a good slide deck and well worth a look.
- 80% of Americans believe the country is out of control. (I have never even heard of pollsters asking that question.)
- About 2/3 of Americans believe the coronavirus is getting worse.
- Earlier in the year, more than half of red or reddish voters were satisfied with the way things were going in this country. That figure has fallen off a cliff and is now less than one in five.
- The right track wrong track question as to the direction of the country has been upside down since President Trump was elected in 2016. Today 72% say wrong track and only 19% say right track. That leaves 9% who are presumably catatonic.
- There is no point in describing the slides on the election itself because nobody wants to think anything that they don’t already hope. There are some useful insights, however that might suggest a reason for the President to tweet about postponing the election. Or merely to fire the head of his campaign.
- Early voting is something to watch. There will be more of it and it will be sooner than ever before. The famed “October Surprise” won’t have much effect on those who have already voted.
- Finally, Republican control of the Senate seems threatened and that is just what a 51% to 40% majority hopes will happen.
If you happen to be an uncertainty junkie, imagine this scenario.
Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has been hospitalized several times in recent weeks with a recurrence of cancer and related health problems.
Imagine if her seat becomes available to be filled by a President who has lost and confirmed by a Senate that will change hands at the turn of the year.
That is not an entirely implausible scenario for November and December of the “perfect clarity” year 2020.
Barrett Seaman, August 04, 2020 at 6:24 pm said:
Well done, Haven. An excellent reconstruction via bullet points. The right track/wrong track point is key. Framing the possible RBG replacement as you have so starkly is evidence enough that we have lost our way–without even having to mention what happened with Merrick Garland four years (or was it four light years?) ago.
Haven Pell, August 04, 2020 at 6:43 pm said:
Thanks Barry, I was also quite taken by the one about the country being out of control.
If the RBG scenario played out as described, that might signify that we had reached peak hypocrisy.
Richard Meyer, August 04, 2020 at 7:13 pm said:
Remember when the GOP blocked a replacement for Justice Scalia because it was in the last year of Obama’s term? Many of the numbers you cited, Haven, seem unprecedented, and you didn’t even mention the unemployment rate.
Haven Pell, August 04, 2020 at 8:01 pm said:
All true, Richard. See the reply above about peak hypocrisy.
The unemployment rate would have been a good addition but, since Doug Sosnik didn’t include it, I couldn’t paraphrase it.
GARRARD GLENN, August 04, 2020 at 7:23 pm said:
I agree with the 80%. The country is out of control.
Doubtless the good folk in 1918 felt the same about the Spanish flu.
Mr. Floyd’s unfortunate demise has unleashed a frenzy of PC outrage. What will come of it? Perhaps some police reform will encourage some slightly better behaviour on the part of the police re black arrests and attitudes. But blacks commit almost 50%
of the homicides in this country, and represent just 13 % of the population. Until that discrepancy is dramatically reduced, police are likely to retain the attitude they are in a war zone, when they patrol inner city black neighborhoods. Indeed, here in NYC
perrenially 95% of serious felonies are committed by young black and hispanic young men.
Haven Pell, August 04, 2020 at 8:04 pm said:
It is probably a good thing that Pundificator.com is not a part of the cancel culture. I hope you checked the figures you offered.
Chip Oat, August 04, 2020 at 8:52 pm said:
Your RBG scenario would be hard to stop if the circumstances were to (tragically) work out.
Even if Trump had a coronary after losing and was incapacitated, Pence, McConnell and the Federalist Society would make sure the moment wouldn’t be lost.
Haven Pell, August 04, 2020 at 9:03 pm said:
I suspect it would take many decades for political calm to be restored.
Chip Oat, August 04, 2020 at 9:20 pm said:
Despite what we might think, legal and/or ethical rarely used to matter if everything was undercover.
Now, “Can we get away with it – even in broad daylight?” is the only consideration that matters.
Or, as POTUS himself has said, “So what if I did it? Sue me if you don’t like it. That’s what my lawyers are for.”
Haven Pell, August 05, 2020 at 8:29 am said:
Disappointing but not inaccurate.
Peter W. Bragdon, August 04, 2020 at 11:09 pm said:
The only route has to be an overwhelming vote against Trump.
A fine presentation, Haven.
Haven Pell, August 05, 2020 at 8:26 am said:
We should know the outcome in a few months’ time following the tradition four-step process: campaigning; voting; counting; and wrangling.
John Austin Murphy, August 06, 2020 at 10:35 am said:
IF RBG should die or resign before January, 2021, will Individual-1 and the Majority Leader of the Senate try to rush through Barr’s elevation to the Supreme Court.
Haven Pell, August 06, 2020 at 1:31 pm said:
I have always thought Amy Coney Barrett was more likely so that a woman replaced a woman.