House Impeachment Vote
This story is an email to a friend in UK who forwarded a BBC News account of last night’s vote to impeach President Trump.He was curious about what I thought of both the story and the upcoming 11 months until the election.
Story seems accurate. I watched about half an hour on TV.
Both narratives are flawed. But, since they are aimed at around the median IQ, I am quite likely to find them deficient in both fact and logic.
There might well be nothing that will change Democratic Party minds. There might also be no value to changing them. There is simply no possibility of a sudden revelation that would cause the Democratic base to decide it was wrong.
Is there anything that would change Republican minds? I don’t think “boiling the frog” will do it. To me it seems there would have to be a blockbuster development that would dramatically change the narrative from one day to the next.
I don’t know if such a development exists so predicting the next year seems impossible.
Absent such a development, I seriously doubt the President gets removed from office.
November’s outcome will depend on how the politics plays out between now and then. Each side will try to portray itself as the victim of the other.
The process thus far has succeeded in motivating the bases on both sides and has contributed significantly to fund-raising (a major part of the point of the activity).
Republicans have done better in fund-raising than Democrats. This could turn out to be important. It is certainly important to those whose paychecks are sourced from the contributions.
The top of the league tables for the Democratic nomination is not inspiring. It will become less so as they increase attacks on each other during the primaries.
I would say that the odds of a November win for the Democrats increase if a candidate emerges from nowhere in the coming months.