Will It Ever End?

The midterm elections are less than five weeks away and that should be the end of the stories about who will control the Senate, but maybe not. In Louisiana, if neither party gets a majority in the three-way race, a runoff is held on December 6 and in Georgia it’s worse. The runoff takes place on January 6. The Georgia date is so late that the Senate might not be able to convene in early January should majority control depend upon the outcome.

Some may have observed that the President is not wildly popular, especially in more conservative states where Democratic Senate candidates are distancing themselves from him and his policies. For those candidates, the President’s recent quote “Make no mistake: These policies are on the ballot. Every single one of them” might fall into the category of unhelpful.

Week three of the LibertyPell Nyah Nyah Senate Majority Index continues the trend shown from week one to week two. The Republicans seem likely to control the Senate and the probability has trended gently higher. The three traditionalists are the least convinced, while the three modelers show probabilities ranging from 58% to 77%. Even the renegade, Sam Wang, who two weeks ago was a contrarian, has now fallen in line with the majority, giving the Republicans a 66% chance. The aggregator has 52 seats for the Republicans and the British odds makers remain solidly on the Republican side.

Still there is plenty of time for gaffes on either side of any race – nobody gave the President a monopoly on those – and it could come down to a festive Thanksgiving of campaigning in Louisiana and Christmas in Georgia.

High times and fat paychecks for the campaign pros but will it ever end for the rest of us?

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